Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Real Betis Balompié
To win
+$133.80
Total payout
$153.80
Joint prob
32.8%
Combined odds
7.69
Fair odds
3.05
Edge
+152.5%
Expected value: +$30.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$30.49 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 6% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$1.72 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Real Betis Balompié scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.8% · fair market: 12.5% · edge: +162.5%
Model probabilities Real Betis Balompié 32.8% · Draw 23.8% · Real Madrid CF 43.3% Why Real Madrid CF is favoured Real Madrid CF's Elo (1752) is +152 over Real Betis Balompié (1600); high confidence. Recent: Real Betis Balompié 2W-0D-1L · Real Madrid CF 3W-0D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Real Betis Balompié -0.3, Real Madrid CF +2.7. Form depth Real Betis Balompié: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Real Madrid CF: avg 3.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Real Madrid CF on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Real Betis Balompié 1.0, Real Madrid CF 2.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Real Betis Balompié 0W, 5D, Real Madrid CF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 5-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 26.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 32.8% vs market 12.5% (edge +162.6%, suggested Kelly +22.8% of bankroll). draw: model 23.8% vs market 17.8% (edge +33.9%, suggested Kelly +6.5% of bankroll). Context Real Betis Balompié has 1 more day of rest (Real Betis Balompié 12d, Real Madrid CF 11d).