RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Celta de Vigo 52.6% · Draw 25.0% · Athletic Club 22.3% Why RC Celta de Vigo is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1533) is +89 over Athletic Club (1444); high confidence. Recent: RC Celta de Vigo 0W-1D-1L · Athletic Club 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: RC Celta de Vigo -0.5, Athletic Club -2.0. Form depth RC Celta de Vigo: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Athletic Club: avg 0.5 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Athletic Club on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — RC Celta de Vigo 0W, 1D, Athletic Club 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 60.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.