Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 34.0% · Draw 19.2% · LDU de Quito 46.8% Why LDU de Quito is favoured LDU de Quito's Elo (1515) is +17 over Mirassol FC (1498); low confidence. Recent: Mirassol FC 4W-2D-4L · LDU de Quito 4W-0D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC -0.2, LDU de Quito +0.5. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). LDU de Quito: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). LDU de Quito on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Mirassol FC 1.0, LDU de Quito 1.3) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.