São Paulo FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities São Paulo FC 34.6% · Draw 26.3% · CA Mineiro 39.1% Why CA Mineiro is favoured CA Mineiro's Elo (1559) is +101 over São Paulo FC (1457); medium confidence. Recent: São Paulo FC 1W-3D-6L · CA Mineiro 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: São Paulo FC -0.5, CA Mineiro +0.7. Form depth São Paulo FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). CA Mineiro: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (São Paulo FC 0.9, CA Mineiro 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — São Paulo FC 0W, 4D, CA Mineiro 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-0, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 30.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.