Fluminense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fluminense FC 50.3% · Draw 25.1% · CR Vasco da Gama 24.6% Why Fluminense FC is favoured Fluminense FC's Elo (1542) is +91 over CR Vasco da Gama (1450); medium confidence. Recent: Fluminense FC 3W-7D-0L · CR Vasco da Gama 2W-2D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fluminense FC +0.3, CR Vasco da Gama -1.1. Form depth Fluminense FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Fluminense FC 1.8, CR Vasco da Gama 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Fluminense FC 0W, 1D, CR Vasco da Gama 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 2-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 56.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.