ES Troyes AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ES Troyes AC 41.7% · Draw 27.7% · RC Strasbourg Alsace 30.6% Why ES Troyes AC is favoured RC Strasbourg Alsace's Elo (1565) is +55 over ES Troyes AC (1510); low confidence. Recent: ES Troyes AC 1W-1D-0L · RC Strasbourg Alsace 1W-0D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: ES Troyes AC +0.5, RC Strasbourg Alsace -1.5. Form depth ES Troyes AC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — ES Troyes AC 0W, 4D, RC Strasbourg Alsace 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-3, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 43.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RC Strasbourg Alsace has 1 more day of rest (ES Troyes AC 14d, RC Strasbourg Alsace 15d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.