Cruzeiro EC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cruzeiro EC 48.1% · Draw 19.6% · CR Flamengo 32.3% Why Cruzeiro EC is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1561) is +29 over Cruzeiro EC (1532); medium confidence. Recent: Cruzeiro EC 6W-3D-1L · CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cruzeiro EC +0.9, CR Flamengo +1.1. Form depth Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Cruzeiro EC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Cruzeiro EC 1.1, CR Flamengo 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Cruzeiro EC 0W, 2D, CR Flamengo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 0-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 45.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 48.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.