Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Everton FC
To win
+$42.20
Total payout
$62.20
Joint prob
33.0%
Combined odds
3.11
Fair odds
3.03
Edge
+2.5%
Expected value: +$0.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.50 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 12% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-3.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Newcastle United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.0% · fair market: 31.1% · edge: +5.9%
Model probabilities Newcastle United FC 42.6% · Draw 24.4% · Everton FC 33.0% Why Newcastle United FC is favoured Everton FC's Elo (1522) is +20 over Newcastle United FC (1502); high confidence. Recent: Newcastle United FC 3W-2D-3L · Everton FC 2W-4D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Newcastle United FC -0.3, Everton FC -0.1. Form depth Newcastle United FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Everton FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Everton FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Newcastle United FC 1.3, Everton FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Newcastle United FC 0W, 2D, Everton FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 1-4, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.0% vs market 31.1% (edge +5.9%, suggested Kelly +1.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.