Coventry City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coventry City FC 47.4% · Draw 24.8% · Fulham FC 27.8% Why Coventry City FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1516 vs 1519) — winner depends on context. Recent: Coventry City FC 2W-0D-5L · Fulham FC 1W-2D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Coventry City FC -1.1, Fulham FC -0.4. Form depth Coventry City FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Fulham FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Coventry City FC 1.1, Fulham FC 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Coventry City FC 0W, 3D, Fulham FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-3, 4-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.