Aston Villa FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Aston Villa FC 42.6% · Draw 30.2% · Nottingham Forest FC 27.1% Why Aston Villa FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Aston Villa FC 1W-1D-2L · Nottingham Forest FC 0W-2D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Aston Villa FC -1.0, Nottingham Forest FC -0.3. Form depth Aston Villa FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/3 on the road). Nottingham Forest FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Nottingham Forest FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Aston Villa FC 0.9, Nottingham Forest FC 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Aston Villa FC 0W, 2D, Nottingham Forest FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Nottingham Forest FC has 1 more day of rest (Aston Villa FC 19d, Nottingham Forest FC 20d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.