Hull City AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Hull City AFC 44.8% · Draw 26.6% · Aston Villa FC 28.6% Why Hull City AFC is favoured Aston Villa FC's Elo (1585) is +70 over Hull City AFC (1515); low confidence. Recent: Hull City AFC 2W-0D-0L · Aston Villa FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Hull City AFC +1.5, Aston Villa FC -2.5. Form depth Hull City AFC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Aston Villa FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Hull City AFC on a 2-match winning streak. Aston Villa FC on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Hull City AFC 0W, 4D, Aston Villa FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 48.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Hull City AFC has 1 more day of rest (Hull City AFC 14d, Aston Villa FC 13d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.