Fulham FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fulham FC 46.2% · Draw 28.2% · Crystal Palace FC 25.6% Why Fulham FC is favoured Fulham FC's Elo (1516) is +35 over Crystal Palace FC (1481); high confidence. Recent: Fulham FC 0W-0D-2L · Crystal Palace FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Fulham FC -1.0, Crystal Palace FC -2.5. Form depth Fulham FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Crystal Palace FC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Fulham FC on a 2-match losing streak. Crystal Palace FC on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Fulham FC 0W, 5D, Crystal Palace FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 52.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Crystal Palace FC has 2 more days of rest (Fulham FC 11d, Crystal Palace FC 13d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.