Sunderland AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sunderland AFC 43.5% · Draw 30.0% · Fulham FC 26.5% Why Sunderland AFC is favoured Elo essentially level (1519 vs 1516) — winner depends on context. Recent: Sunderland AFC 0W-0D-1L · Fulham FC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Sunderland AFC -1.0, Fulham FC -1.0. Form depth Sunderland AFC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Fulham FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sunderland AFC 0W, 2D, Fulham FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-3, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 48.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sunderland AFC has 2 more days of rest (Sunderland AFC 7d, Fulham FC 5d).