Fulham FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fulham FC 41.1% · Draw 28.4% · Chelsea FC 30.5% Why Fulham FC is favoured Chelsea FC's Elo (1566) is +41 over Fulham FC (1525); high confidence. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Fulham FC 0W, 1D, Chelsea FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 2-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 43.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.