ES Troyes AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ES Troyes AC 41.7% · Draw 29.0% · Paris FC 29.2% Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — ES Troyes AC 0W, 3D, Paris FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 44.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.