Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · AS Monaco FC
To win
+$115.40
Total payout
$135.40
Joint prob
18.2%
Combined odds
6.77
Fair odds
5.50
Edge
+23.1%
Expected value: +$4.62 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.62 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 16% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$22.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Paris Saint-Germain FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 18.2% · fair market: 14.2% · edge: +27.7%
Model probabilities Paris Saint-Germain FC 65.3% · Draw 16.5% · AS Monaco FC 18.2% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1817) is +248 over AS Monaco FC (1569); high confidence. Recent: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W-2D-0L · AS Monaco FC 2W-0D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Paris Saint-Germain FC +0.0, AS Monaco FC +1.5. Form depth Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 on the road). AS Monaco FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC on a 2-draw streak. AS Monaco FC on a 2-match winning streak. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W, 3D, AS Monaco FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-3, 2-2, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 72.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 18.2% vs market 13.8% (edge +32.2%, suggested Kelly +4.5% of bankroll).