FC Lorient scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Lorient 42.4% · Draw 29.7% · ES Troyes AC 27.9% Why FC Lorient is favoured ES Troyes AC's Elo (1501) is +12 over FC Lorient (1489); low confidence. Recent: FC Lorient 0W-1D-0L · ES Troyes AC 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: FC Lorient +0.0, ES Troyes AC +0.0. Form depth FC Lorient: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). ES Troyes AC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Lorient 0W, 2D, ES Troyes AC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 46.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.