Le Havre AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Le Havre AC 39.7% · Draw 28.7% · Stade Brestois 29 31.6% Why Le Havre AC is favoured Stade Brestois 29's Elo (1458) is +39 over Le Havre AC (1419); high confidence. Recent: Le Havre AC 0W-1D-1L · Stade Brestois 29 0W-2D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Le Havre AC -0.5, Stade Brestois 29 +0.0. Form depth Le Havre AC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Stade Brestois 29: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Stade Brestois 29 on a 2-draw streak. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Le Havre AC 0W, 1D, Stade Brestois 29 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 1-0, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 40.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.