Paris FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris FC 40.2% · Draw 27.8% · Olympique Lyonnais 32.1% Why Paris FC is favoured Olympique Lyonnais's Elo (1597) is +57 over Paris FC (1540); high confidence. Recent: Paris FC 2W-1D-0L · Olympique Lyonnais 2W-1D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Paris FC +1.3, Olympique Lyonnais +1.3. Form depth Paris FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Olympique Lyonnais: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Paris FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Paris FC 1.3, Olympique Lyonnais 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Paris FC 0W, 3D, Olympique Lyonnais 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 3-3.