Stade Brestois 29 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stade Brestois 29 21.2% · Draw 14.0% · Paris Saint-Germain FC 64.8% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1821) is +354 over Stade Brestois 29 (1467); high confidence. Recent: Stade Brestois 29 1W-2D-0L · Paris Saint-Germain FC 1W-2D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Stade Brestois 29 +0.3, Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.0. Form depth Stade Brestois 29: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (Stade Brestois 29 1.9, Paris Saint-Germain FC 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Stade Brestois 29 0W, 1D, Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-3, 7-0. Calibration Raw model: 10.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Stade Brestois 29 has 1 more day of rest (Stade Brestois 29 21d, Paris Saint-Germain FC 20d).