AJ Auxerre scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AJ Auxerre 41.0% · Draw 30.0% · OGC Nice 29.1% Why AJ Auxerre is favoured Elo essentially level (1453 vs 1463) — winner depends on context. Recent: AJ Auxerre 0W-0D-3L · OGC Nice 0W-2D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: AJ Auxerre -2.3, OGC Nice -1.0. Form depth AJ Auxerre: avg 1.3 goals scored, 3.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). OGC Nice: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). AJ Auxerre on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (AJ Auxerre 1.3, OGC Nice 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — AJ Auxerre 0W, 3D, OGC Nice 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AJ Auxerre has 1 more day of rest (AJ Auxerre 21d, OGC Nice 20d).