Lille OSC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Lille OSC 53.1% · Draw 24.5% · ES Troyes AC 22.4% Why Lille OSC is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1609) is +98 over ES Troyes AC (1510); low confidence. Recent: Lille OSC 2W-1D-1L · ES Troyes AC 1W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Lille OSC +0.5, ES Troyes AC -1.0. Form depth Lille OSC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). ES Troyes AC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Lille OSC 2.0, ES Troyes AC 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Lille OSC 0W, 5D, ES Troyes AC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 5-1, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 61.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context ES Troyes AC has 1 more day of rest (Lille OSC 20d, ES Troyes AC 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.