Olympique Lyonnais scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Olympique Lyonnais 44.6% · Draw 29.2% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 26.3% Why Olympique Lyonnais is favoured Olympique Lyonnais's Elo (1597) is +18 over Stade Rennais FC 1901 (1579); high confidence. Recent: Olympique Lyonnais 2W-2D-0L · Stade Rennais FC 1901 3W-1D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Olympique Lyonnais +1.0, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.8. Form depth Olympique Lyonnais: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/1 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901 on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Olympique Lyonnais 1.4, Stade Rennais FC 1901 1.3) — right around 2.5. Calibration Raw model: 50.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Olympique Lyonnais has 1 more day of rest (Olympique Lyonnais 27d, Stade Rennais FC 1901 26d).