Angers SCO scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Angers SCO 37.8% · Draw 26.3% · ES Troyes AC 35.9% Why Angers SCO is favoured ES Troyes AC's Elo (1500) is +93 over Angers SCO (1406); low confidence. Recent: Angers SCO 1W-1D-2L · ES Troyes AC 1W-1D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Angers SCO -0.3, ES Troyes AC -1.3. Form depth Angers SCO: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). ES Troyes AC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). ES Troyes AC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Angers SCO 1.6, ES Troyes AC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Angers SCO 0W, 1D, ES Troyes AC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 35.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.