AS Monaco FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AS Monaco FC 59.2% · Draw 22.2% · Toulouse FC 18.5% Why AS Monaco FC is favoured AS Monaco FC's Elo (1581) is +56 over Toulouse FC (1525); high confidence. Recent: AS Monaco FC 4W-1D-0L · Toulouse FC 1W-2D-2L (last 5). Goal differential per game: AS Monaco FC +1.0, Toulouse FC -0.4. Form depth AS Monaco FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 2/3 on the road). Toulouse FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (AS Monaco FC 1.7, Toulouse FC 1.0) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — AS Monaco FC 0W, 2D, Toulouse FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-0, 1-1.