Paris Saint-Germain FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris Saint-Germain FC 81.8% · Draw 12.7% · Le Mans FC 5.5% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1828) is +325 over Le Mans FC (1503); low confidence. Recent: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3W-2D-1L · Le Mans FC 1W-3D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.0, Le Mans FC +0.0. Form depth Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 2/4 on the road). Le Mans FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Paris Saint-Germain FC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Paris Saint-Germain FC 2.1, Le Mans FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W, 2D, Le Mans FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 78.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 81.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Le Mans FC has 1 more day of rest (Paris Saint-Germain FC 47d, Le Mans FC 48d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.