Le Havre AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Le Havre AC 38.3% · Draw 23.4% · AJ Auxerre 38.3% Why AJ Auxerre is favoured AJ Auxerre's Elo (1464) is +54 over Le Havre AC (1410); high confidence. Recent: Le Havre AC 0W-2D-4L · AJ Auxerre 2W-0D-4L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Le Havre AC -0.7, AJ Auxerre -1.3. Form depth Le Havre AC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). AJ Auxerre: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.7 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Le Havre AC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Le Havre AC 1.7, AJ Auxerre 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Le Havre AC 0W, 3D, AJ Auxerre 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 40.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AJ Auxerre has 1 more day of rest (Le Havre AC 55d, AJ Auxerre 56d).