Stade Brestois 29 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stade Brestois 29 47.6% · Draw 24.8% · OGC Nice 27.6% Why Stade Brestois 29 is favoured Elo essentially level (1475 vs 1477) — winner depends on context. Recent: Stade Brestois 29 2W-3D-2L · OGC Nice 2W-2D-3L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Stade Brestois 29 +0.4, OGC Nice -0.4. Form depth Stade Brestois 29: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). OGC Nice: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Stade Brestois 29 1.6, OGC Nice 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Stade Brestois 29 0W, 3D, OGC Nice 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 4-1, 6-0.