OGC Nice scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities OGC Nice 28.1% · Draw 22.2% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 49.7% Why Stade Rennais FC 1901 is favoured Stade Rennais FC 1901's Elo (1579) is +102 over OGC Nice (1477); high confidence. Recent: OGC Nice 3W-2D-3L · Stade Rennais FC 1901 5W-1D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: OGC Nice -0.3, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.5. Form depth OGC Nice: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (OGC Nice 1.4, Stade Rennais FC 1901 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — OGC Nice 0W, 1D, Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-4, 1-2, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 32.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 28.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.