Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · FC Lorient
To win
+$30.20
Total payout
$50.20
Joint prob
49.3%
Combined odds
2.51
Fair odds
2.03
Edge
+23.6%
Expected value: +$4.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.73 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 15% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-6.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
FC Lorient scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.3% · fair market: 38.7% · edge: +27.4%
Model probabilities FC Lorient 49.3% · Draw 24.2% · Stade Brestois 29 26.5% Why FC Lorient is favoured FC Lorient's Elo (1491) is +16 over Stade Brestois 29 (1475); high confidence. Recent: FC Lorient 3W-3D-2L · Stade Brestois 29 2W-3D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: FC Lorient +0.1, Stade Brestois 29 +0.3. Form depth FC Lorient: avg 0.9 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Stade Brestois 29: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (FC Lorient 1.2, Stade Brestois 29 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Lorient 0W, 2D, Stade Brestois 29 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 3-3, 0-1. +EV vs market home: model 49.3% vs market 38.7% (edge +27.4%, suggested Kelly +15.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.