Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Olympique Lyonnais
To win
+$8.00
Total payout
$28.00
Joint prob
71.9%
Combined odds
1.40
Fair odds
1.39
Edge
+0.7%
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.10 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 11% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-1.09 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$0.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Olympique Lyonnais scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.9% · fair market: 68.8% · edge: +4.5%
Model probabilities Olympique Lyonnais 71.9% · Draw 17.4% · Angers SCO 10.7% Why Olympique Lyonnais is favoured Olympique Lyonnais's Elo (1588) is +184 over Angers SCO (1404); high confidence. Recent: Olympique Lyonnais 4W-2D-2L · Angers SCO 2W-2D-4L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Olympique Lyonnais +0.8, Angers SCO -0.8. Form depth Olympique Lyonnais: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Angers SCO: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Olympique Lyonnais 1.8, Angers SCO 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Olympique Lyonnais 0W, 1D, Angers SCO 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 69.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 71.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 71.9% vs market 68.8% (edge +4.5%, suggested Kelly +1.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.