SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 37.8% · Draw 28.0% · FC Twente '65 34.2% Why SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden is favoured FC Twente '65's Elo (1506) is +59 over SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (1447); low confidence. Recent: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W-0D-3L · FC Twente '65 1W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden -3.0, FC Twente '65 +0.5. Form depth SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden: avg 1.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). FC Twente '65: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden on a 3-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W, 2D, FC Twente '65 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 0-1, 1-0. Context SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden has 2 more days of rest (SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 22d, FC Twente '65 20d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.