FC Utrecht scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Utrecht 38.5% · Draw 29.5% · Go Ahead Eagles 32.0% Why FC Utrecht is favoured Go Ahead Eagles's Elo (1499) is +27 over FC Utrecht (1472); low confidence. Recent: FC Utrecht 0W-1D-3L · Go Ahead Eagles 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: FC Utrecht -2.3, Go Ahead Eagles +0.5. Form depth FC Utrecht: avg 1.5 goals scored, 3.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Go Ahead Eagles: avg 2.8 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~5.1 total goals (FC Utrecht 1.9, Go Ahead Eagles 3.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — FC Utrecht 0W, 6D, Go Ahead Eagles 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-2, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.