SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 35.8% · Draw 28.1% · Feyenoord Rotterdam 36.1% Why Feyenoord Rotterdam is favoured Feyenoord Rotterdam's Elo (1525) is +62 over SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (1463); low confidence. Recent: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W-0D-2L · Feyenoord Rotterdam 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden -3.0, Feyenoord Rotterdam +0.5. Form depth SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden: avg 0.5 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Feyenoord Rotterdam: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 33.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden has 2 more days of rest (SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 15d, Feyenoord Rotterdam 13d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.