Fortuna Sittard scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fortuna Sittard 46.2% · Draw 29.2% · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 24.6% Why Fortuna Sittard is favoured Fortuna Sittard's Elo (1492) is +14 over SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (1478); low confidence. Recent: Fortuna Sittard 0W-1D-0L · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Fortuna Sittard +0.0, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden -4.0. Form depth Fortuna Sittard: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden: avg 0.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Fortuna Sittard 0W, 1D, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-4, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 53.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden has 1 more day of rest (Fortuna Sittard 6d, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 7d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.