AZ scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AZ 42.5% · Draw 31.6% · ADO Den Haag 25.9% Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — AZ 0W, 1D, ADO Den Haag 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 2-2, 4-0. Calibration Raw model: 47.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.