Club Libertad Asuncion scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Libertad Asuncion 40.8% · Draw 25.3% · Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 34.0% Why Club Libertad Asuncion is favoured Universidad Central de Venezuela FC's Elo (1495) is +25 over Club Libertad Asuncion (1470); low confidence. Recent: Club Libertad Asuncion 0W-0D-5L · Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 2W-0D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Club Libertad Asuncion -1.6, Universidad Central de Venezuela FC -0.8. Form depth Club Libertad Asuncion: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Club Libertad Asuncion on a 5-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Club Libertad Asuncion 1.5, Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Universidad Central de Venezuela FC has a stronger recent record (40% vs 0%) — model favours Club Libertad Asuncion on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.