Derby County FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Derby County FC 42.2% · Draw 24.8% · Bolton Wanderers FC 33.0% Why Derby County FC is favoured Bolton Wanderers FC's Elo (1498) is +12 over Derby County FC (1486); low confidence. Recent: Derby County FC 0W-3D-7L · Bolton Wanderers FC 4W-1D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Derby County FC -1.6, Bolton Wanderers FC -0.6. Form depth Derby County FC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Bolton Wanderers FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Derby County FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Derby County FC 1.4, Bolton Wanderers FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Bolton Wanderers FC has a stronger recent record (40% vs 0%) — model favours Derby County FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Derby County FC 0W, 2D, Bolton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 44.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.