CA Rosario Central scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Rosario Central 49.9% · Draw 25.9% · Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 24.2% Why CA Rosario Central is favoured Elo essentially level (1510 vs 1515) — winner depends on context. Recent: CA Rosario Central 3W-1D-0L · Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 2W-0D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: CA Rosario Central +1.3, Universidad Central de Venezuela FC -0.3. Form depth CA Rosario Central: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/1 on the road). CA Rosario Central on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (CA Rosario Central 1.5, Universidad Central de Venezuela FC 0.8) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.