CA Lanús scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Lanús 43.7% · Draw 24.7% · Mirassol FC 31.6% Why CA Lanús is favoured Mirassol FC's Elo (1515) is +44 over CA Lanús (1472); low confidence. Recent: CA Lanús 2W-0D-3L · Mirassol FC 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Lanús -1.0, Mirassol FC +0.3. Form depth CA Lanús: avg 0.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). CA Lanús on a 2-match losing streak. Mirassol FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (CA Lanús 0.7, Mirassol FC 1.4) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Mirassol FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 40%) — model favours CA Lanús on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context CA Lanús has 6 more days of rest (CA Lanús 47d, Mirassol FC 41d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.