Club Always Ready
vs CA Lanús_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  41.1%

  Fair odds

  2.43

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  28.3%

  Fair odds

  3.53

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  9.8%

  Fair odds

  10.25

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  8.2%

  Fair odds

  12.16

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.7%

  Fair odds

  17.65

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  2.2%

  Fair odds

  44.64

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  2.0%

  Fair odds

  51.26

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  0.8%

  Fair odds

  121.62

Club Always Ready scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -29%

  Joint prob

  0.6%

  Naïve (book)

  0.9%

  Fair odds

  161.29

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +14%

  Joint prob

  0.7%

  Naïve (book)

  0.6%

  Fair odds

  147.57

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -35%

  Joint prob

  2.5%

  Naïve (book)

  3.9%

  Fair odds

  39.33

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +98%

  Joint prob

  5.2%

  Naïve (book)

  2.6%

  Fair odds

  19.13

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.