CA Boca Juniors scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Boca Juniors 45.7% · Draw 25.6% · CD Universidad Católica 28.8% Why CA Boca Juniors is favoured CD Universidad Católica's Elo (1515) is +15 over CA Boca Juniors (1500); low confidence. Recent: CA Boca Juniors 2W-1D-2L · CD Universidad Católica 3W-1D-1L (last 5). Goal differential per game: CA Boca Juniors +0.4, CD Universidad Católica +0.6. Form depth CA Boca Juniors: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). CD Universidad Católica: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (CA Boca Juniors 1.0, CD Universidad Católica 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments CD Universidad Católica has a stronger recent record (60% vs 40%) — model favours CA Boca Juniors on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.