CD Universidad Católica
vs Barcelona SC_

Most likely scorelines

• 1–1MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  11.5%

  Fair odds

  8.71

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  11.1%

  Fair odds

  8.98

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  9.7%

  Fair odds

  10.30

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  9.4%

  Fair odds

  10.62

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  6.8%

  Fair odds

  14.74

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  6.6%

  Fair odds

  15.21

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.9%

  Fair odds

  16.90

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.5%

  Fair odds

  18.25

CD Universidad Católica scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -14%

  Joint prob

  23.7%

  Naïve (book)

  27.7%

  Fair odds

  4.22

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +19%

  Joint prob

  32.2%

  Naïve (book)

  27.0%

  Fair odds

  3.10

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -7%

  Joint prob

  11.2%

  Naïve (book)

  12.1%

  Fair odds

  8.92

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +8%

  Joint prob

  12.8%

  Naïve (book)

  11.8%

  Fair odds

  7.81

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.