Club Universitario de Deportes scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Universitario de Deportes 31.1% · Draw 26.0% · CD Tolima 43.0% Why CD Tolima is favoured Elo essentially level (1499 vs 1499) — winner depends on context. Recent: Club Universitario de Deportes 1W-2D-2L · CD Tolima 5W-1D-3L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Club Universitario de Deportes -0.2, CD Tolima +0.6. Form depth Club Universitario de Deportes: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). CD Tolima: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Club Universitario de Deportes 0.9, CD Tolima 1.3) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Club Universitario de Deportes 0W, 1D, CD Tolima 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.