Club Nacional de Football
vs Club Universitario de Deportes_

Most likely scorelines

• 2–2MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  7.4%

  Fair odds

  13.52

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.4%

  Fair odds

  13.58

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  7.3%

  Fair odds

  13.73

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.3%

  Fair odds

  13.78

• 3–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.0%

  Fair odds

  19.98

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.0%

  Fair odds

  20.06

• 2–3+Save pick

  Prob

  4.9%

  Fair odds

  20.21

• 1–3+Save pick

  Prob

  4.9%

  Fair odds

  20.52

Club Nacional de Football scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -6%

  Joint prob

  28.3%

  Naïve (book)

  30.1%

  Fair odds

  3.53

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +7%

  Joint prob

  32.8%

  Naïve (book)

  30.7%

  Fair odds

  3.05

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -6%

  Joint prob

  27.8%

  Naïve (book)

  29.5%

  Fair odds

  3.60

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +6%

  Joint prob

  32.0%

  Naïve (book)

  30.1%

  Fair odds

  3.12

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.