CD Tolima scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Deportes Tolima enters this Copa Libertadores match after a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Cali in their domestic league on May 3, 2026. The team recently secured a convincing 3-0 home victory over Coquimbo Unido in Copa Libertadores on April 29, 2026, showcasing their attacking potential.
Lineup: A probable lineup for Deportes Tolima in a 1-3-4-2-1 formation is: Alvino Neto – Pedrozo, A. Angulo, J. Angulo – Hernández, Rovira, Trujillo, Arrieta – Parra, González – Sandoval.
Club Nacional de Football is coming off a 3-2 defeat to Albion FC in the Uruguayan league on May 3, 2026. In Copa Libertadores, they suffered a 4-2 loss to Universitario on April 30, 2026, indicating a challenging period for the team.
Lineup: Nacional's last starting XI against Albion (May 4, 2026) was: Ignacio Suárez, Juan Pintado, Paolo Calione, Tomás Viera, Federico Bais, Lucas Rodríguez, Agustín Dos Santos, Tomás Verón Lupi, Maximiliano Silvera, Pavel Núñez, Juan De los Santos.
“CD Tolima hosts struggling Club Nacional in crucial Copa Libertadores clash.”
Model probabilities CD Tolima 56.0% · Draw 26.0% · Club Nacional de Football 18.0% Why CD Tolima is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Tolima 4W-1D-2L · Club Nacional de Football 1W-1D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: CD Tolima +0.7, Club Nacional de Football +0.0. Form depth CD Tolima: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Club Nacional de Football: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (CD Tolima 1.7, Club Nacional de Football 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. News context CD Tolima hosts struggling Club Nacional in crucial Copa Libertadores clash. CD Tolima: Deportes Tolima enters this Copa Libertadores match after a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Cali in their domestic league on May 3, 2026. The team recently secured a convincing 3-0 home victory over Coquimbo Unido in Copa Libertadores on April 29, 2026, showcasing their attacking potential. Club Nacional de Football: Club Nacional de Football is coming off a 3-2 defeat to Albion FC in the Uruguayan league on May 3, 2026. In Copa Libertadores, they suffered a 4-2 loss to Universitario on April 30, 2026, indicating a challenging period for the team. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.