CD Coquimbo Unido scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Coquimbo Unido 48.0% · Draw 26.0% · Club Universitario de Deportes 26.0% Why CD Coquimbo Unido is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Coquimbo Unido 1W-1D-1L · Club Universitario de Deportes 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: CD Coquimbo Unido -0.3, Club Universitario de Deportes +0.0. Form depth CD Coquimbo Unido: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Club Universitario de Deportes: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CD Coquimbo Unido 1.2, Club Universitario de Deportes 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Club Universitario de Deportes has 1 more day of rest (CD Coquimbo Unido 28d, Club Universitario de Deportes 29d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.