Cusco FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cusco FC 28.8% · Draw 26.0% · CD Independiente Medellín 45.2% Why CD Independiente Medellín is favoured Recent: Cusco FC 0W-1D-3L · CD Independiente Medellín 3W-3D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Cusco FC -1.0, CD Independiente Medellín +0.0. Form depth Cusco FC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). CD Independiente Medellín: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Cusco FC 0.8, CD Independiente Medellín 1.3) — below 2.5.