CD Independiente Medellín scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Independiente Medellín 54.3% · Draw 26.0% · CR Flamengo 19.7% Why CD Independiente Medellín is favoured Recent: CD Independiente Medellín 3W-3D-1L · CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CD Independiente Medellín +0.0, CR Flamengo +1.1. Form depth CD Independiente Medellín: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). CR Flamengo on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (CD Independiente Medellín 1.1, CR Flamengo 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CR Flamengo has a stronger recent record (60% vs 43%) — model favours CD Independiente Medellín on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.