RB Bragantino scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Bragantino 32.4% · Draw 24.3% · Santos FC 43.2% Why Santos FC is favoured Santos FC's Elo (1548) is +38 over RB Bragantino (1510); high confidence. Recent: RB Bragantino 2W-3D-5L · Santos FC 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Bragantino -0.1, Santos FC +0.5. Form depth RB Bragantino: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Santos FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 5/6 on the road). Santos FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (RB Bragantino 1.3, Santos FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RB Bragantino 0W, 4D, Santos FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-2, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 35.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.